WTPQ30 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2605 HAGUPIT (2605)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 8.6N, 139.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
  AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
  LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
  DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
  DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR.
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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