FOCN45 CWWG 081900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT FRIDAY MAY
8 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN ULUKHAKTOK, NT.
SNOWFALL WARNING FOR QIKIQTARJUAQ, NU.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
US AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. EAST OF THIS, THE UPPER FLOW DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN PRAIRIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER
HIGH SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
ARCHIPELAGO AND NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. SOUTH OF THIS SITS A BROAD
VORTEX CENTRED OVER HUDSON BAY THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
ARCTIC, MANITOBA, ONTARIO, AND QUEBEC. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
VISIBLE ON SAT PIX, INCLUDING ONE IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, SEVERAL
ROTATING THROUGH HUDSON BAY, AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE LABRADOR SEA.

AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTRE SITS OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST.
NORTH OF THIS WAVE, A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ARCTIC INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
IN THE NORTH, A WEAK FILLING LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC ISLANDS. FURTHER EAST, AN OCCLUDED 993 MB LOW SITS OVER
CENTRAL HUDSON BAY. EAST OF THIS, A MATURED 984 MB LOW SITS OVER THE
NORTHWEST LABRADOR SEA WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WARM FRONT ARCING
NORTHEAST INTO DAVIS STRAIT.

DISCUSSION...

WESTERN PRAIRIES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER GENERALLY. SOME CONVECTION
COULD TRIGGER OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS UNDER 250 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
SOME GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND PROFILES ARE DRY ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIKELY NON-SEVERE GUSTINESS, PROBABLY IN THE SAME 70-80 KM/H RANGE AS
YESTERDAY.

EASTERN PRAIRIES...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN MANITOBA FROM THE ARCTIC OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. SUPPORTED BY THE GRADUALLY DECAYING LOW OVER THE BAY, NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT IT WILL KEEP THE GRIP OF
WINTER OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

FURTHER SOUTH, AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA AND SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TODAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTRE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
INSTABILITY NEAR THE LOW SEEMS LESS INTENSE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYSED,
CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 175 J/KG OF MLCAPE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION BUT WE'LL BE MONITORING THIS AREA AS WELL.

WESTERN ARCTIC...A FEW CENTIMETERS PER 12 HOURS LOOKS SET FOR THE
MACKENZIE DELTA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT SITS SOUTH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OPEN WATER WEST OF SACHS HARBOUR AND A STEADY WESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN
BRINGING FLURRIES TO SACHS HARBOUR AND ON AND OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AROUND THE AMUNDSEN GULF. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS LIFTED AT KUGLUKTUK IN
PART THANKS TO SOME TERRAIN IN THE WAY BUT IS CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ULUKHAKTOK. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY WAS ENDED IN
THE FORMER COMMUNITY BUT CONTINUES IN THE LATER ONE.

NUNAVUT...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP THROUGH THE KIVALLIQ
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW TODAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA AND THE HUDSON BAY LOW
COLLAPSES AS THE ENERGY SHIFTS NORTH TO THE INCOMING LABRADOR SEA
LOW.

FURTHER EAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LABRADOR SEA LOW WILL BRING A WAVE
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND. KIMMIRUT,
PANGNIRTUNG AND IQALUIT FIND THEMSELVES SHADOWED FROM ANY NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE TERRAIN TO THEIR NORTH, BUT QIKIQTARJUAQ
WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR QIKIQTARJUAQ, THE
SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY BEFORE EASING. SNOWFALL HERE WILL BE HEAVIER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, HOVERING JUST BELOW ZERO. WITH ABOUT
25 MM OF QSF INDICATED IN MOST GUIDANCE AND TAKING A BIT LOWER THAN A
10:1 SLR, 15 TO 20 CM OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF.
A SNOWFALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT HERE. THE EXACT TOTAL IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF ENHANCED QPF, QUESTIONS AROUND SLR, AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS.

THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH TOWARDS CLYDE RIVER, BUT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT MOVES OVER THERE TOMORROW NIGHT.

WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AS THE LABRADOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND FROM THE LABRADOR SEA. MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAFFIN
ISLAND AND NORTHERN KIVALLIQ, WITH ANOTHER RISK OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
PANGNIRTUNG. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO END UP SLIGHTLY OFF
PREFERRED AXIS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE RIDGE-TOP WINDS,
THOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK WOULD LIKELY SHIFT WINDS
TOWARDS A STRAIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT RIDGE-TOP. GIVEN THE ABILITY FOR
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 110 KM/H,
WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK AS STRONG, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT IT
COULD PRODUCE NEAR-WARNING LEVEL GUSTS. HAVE CARRIED GUSTS TO 80 KM/H
IN THE FORECAST AND WILL RE-ASSESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

BLOWING SNOW WILL AGAIN NOT BE A NOTABLE CONCERN WITH THE WINDS AS
MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

END/BATE