AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 09 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest 
Colombia southwestward to 07N78W and to 09N98W to 08N110W and 
to 06N124W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N135W and 
to west of the area at 06N140W Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is from 09N to 15N between 97W-110W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south
of the trough between 104W-110W, also within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ between 125W-133W, and within 60 nm north of the 
ITCZ west of 137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 97W-100W, also between 136W-139W
and within 30 nm south of the trough between 81W-86W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh 
northwest to north winds offshore Baja California due to the 
pressure gradient between a broad ridge associated to a 
1023 mb high that is centered near 32N134W and relatively lower 
pressure in northwest Mexico. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 
to 7 ft in long-period northwest swell. Moderate northerly winds 
prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to 18N, where seas are 
4 to 6 ft in northwest swell mixed with south to southwest long-
period swell. Gentle northwest winds prevail across much of the 
Gulf of California, then become moderate northerly winds from the
entrance to the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes, where seas are 3 to 5 
ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Light to gentle north
to northeast winds along with moderate seas in a mix of 
northwest and southwest swell are elsewhere to the east, except 
for light and variable in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and light to 
gentle winds south of about 14N between 92W and 105W. 
 
Numerous moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms continue 
over the outer waters to the south of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, and 
Guerrero.

For the forecast, the high pressure west of the area will 
support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds and moderate 
to rough seas in long-period northwest swell off Baja California
Norte through this evening, before the high pressure begins to 
weaken through midweek. The weakened pressure pattern will 
support gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through 
Wed. Large northwest swell will continue tonight across the 
outer waters of Baja Norte and move into the waters just
northwest of Isla Guadalupe Sat evening through Sun evening. 
Looking ahead, strong to near gale gap winds and building seas 
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night as 
a cold front moves through southern Mexico.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data reveals mostly light to 
gentle breezes across the offshore waters of Central America and 
southward to Ecuador, with fresh east gap winds across the 
Papagayo region to south of the Gulf of Fonseca, and moderate 
north to northeast winds filtering through the western 
portion of the Gulf of Panama and to near 05N. Combined seas are
5 to 6 ft except 7 to 9 ft in long-period southwest swell near 
03.4S between 84W and 90W as seen in a recent altimeter 
satellite pass.

Scattered moderate convection is south of the Gulf of Panama near 
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will 
pulse at night to strong across the Papagayo region through early
next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
in southerly swell are expected. Large long-period swell near
the southern waters of the Galapagos will subside tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh 
trades from 06N to 24N west of 130W and similar trades from 
10N to 27N between 120W and 130W. Recent satellite altimeter 
data showed 6-9 ft seas in mixed swell across this area. Moderate
or weaker breezes and 4-6 ft seas are north of 23N, with gentle 
breezes and 6 to 8 ft combined seas in SW swell south of the 
ITCZ. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are along 
and north of the ITCZ to near 10N and west of 122W.

For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
through early Sun, then weaken and drifting northward Sun 
through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will 
support moderate trades, and fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to
about 24N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with 
seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. 
Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell south of the
Equator tonight through early Sun.

$$
Aguirre