ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 83.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 82.5E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 071553Z METOP-C 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER. A 071557Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF 93S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 C). THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DEVELOPMENT DEPICTIONS FOR 93S HAVE
IMPROVED SHOWING 93S FORMING 48 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE, BUT BOTH MODEL TYPES AGREE ON 93S STAYING RELATIVELY
QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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